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Dec. 16th, 2009 @ 01:46 pm PFF results
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I don't use my LJ for anything anymore, though I suppose I could always mirror my actual blog. But LJ's probably the venue of choice for Fantasy Football discussion:


For our PFF league, I created a list of Fantasy Studs of 2009 using the following methodology:
Using the top X players at each position(where X = 2 * num_league_teams * num_players_position)
Calculate the average and standard deviation score over weeks 1-14(the fantasy regular season)
From that, any fantasy studs are a player who performed at least 1 standard deviation from the average.

Standard deviations of said player score list(QB - 56, RB - 48, WR - 34, TE - 28, K - 15, DST - 20)

From that perspective, I present to you the Pull Fat Fat Fantasy Studs of 2009
4 QBs(Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Favre)
8 RBs(Chris Johnson, AP, MJD, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Addai, Steven Jackson)
14 WRs(Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith(NYG), Chad Ochocinco)
3 TEs(Davis, Clark, Gates)
5 Ks(Kaeding, Akers, Longwell, Tynes, Bironas)
4 DSTs(Saints, Packers, Eagles, Jets)

Out of these 38, 33 were drafted. So Sidney Rice, Vernon Davis, Tynes, Saints DST, and Packers DST were clearly the top free agent pickups for the season. Thacker picking up Rice in week 4 was clearly the best grab of the season.

There's some interesting correlations(no RB stud teams made the playoffs, whereas all the teams with 2+ WRs did) between stud players in various positions vs playoff teams, but those disappear as soon as the comparison is made to teams with a winning record, as our divisions weren't necessarily balanced.

Rating the top picks based on round and studliness(basically the standard deviation of that position), here's the Best Draft Value(or possibly best keeper):
Round 11 - Brett Favre (Hsien)
Round 12 - Ricky Williams (Charles)
Round 15 - Miles Austin (Lee)
Round 11 - Steve Smith(NYG) (Lee)
Round 7 - Ray Rice (Falcon)
Which introduces a huge dilemma for me next season, as I have 3 amazing potential keepers with Austin(15), S. Smith(11), and V. Davis(Undrafted) and only two slots.

Using similar methodology, here's the Dan Snyder Biggest Waste of a Draft Pick list:
Round 1 - Brian Westbrook (Ben)
Round 2 - Clinton Portis (Charles)
Round 3 - Derrick Ward (Jason)
Round 5 - Marshawn Lynch (Brett)
Round 6 - Willie Parker (Scott)

Tabulating the points earned from players that they drafted, Ben wins the Fire and Forget award for 98.43% of his points over the course of the season coming from players that he drafted(average is 81%). Conversely, Jason gets the Fuck My Draft award with the low of 65.28%.
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From:dwchang
Date:December 16th, 2009 10:34 pm (UTC)
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Wow this league seems way different than kwasek's league in terms of playoffs and picks. As for keepers, you only get to keep two players? Why not your way up there picks? I'm guessing you have better players than Miles Austin, Steve Smith or Vernon Davis.
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From:bogosort
Date:December 16th, 2009 10:45 pm (UTC)
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I really stopped caring on kwasek's league at all, so it's pretty unsurprising how badly I did there.

We get to keep 2 players, and they require giving up a draft spot 2 spots ahead of where they were picked(or the 11th(of 15) round if they were undrafted). Early round players thus become basically worthless as keepers, as you're probably better off taking your chances and seeing who you could get two rounds earlier in the draft. Ideally keepers should be young players drafted in later rounds that had breakout seasons. If you look at my analysis of "stud" players, those that are in the key positions(QB,RB,WR,TE) and drafted in the later rounds 10-15 are probably the best bets, as you're using your draft spot for a "stud" that you'd normally go towards picking a backup.
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From:dwchang
Date:December 16th, 2009 11:17 pm (UTC)
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Well I understand the logic, but wouldn't a player who is already a stud and drafted early still be a keeper? For example if you got AP or MJD int he first round, you would have drafted them anyway in the first round and there's no guarantee you'd get a high draft position to re-draft them.

As for Brett's league, no surprise there. It actually helped me since I got a free win out of you later :P. Given you were playing 'for real' the first week and I got a loss there, but yeah. I'm pretty sure Elgin and Nanashi were playing legit though and I'm still surprised how the rankings turned out given who had the quality players.

Frankly this was my first year doing Fantasy and now I know I made A LOT of draft mistakes and somehow I still did OK. I realize some of that is b/c of no-shows, but even point wise, I had some good weeks and a few picks or free agents that worked out (i.e. Tynes, Marshall). The latter of which I thought I really screwed up on >_>.

Anyway this is fun so I hope we do it again.
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From:bogosort
Date:December 16th, 2009 11:30 pm (UTC)
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That's where the two picks above rule comes in. If you got AP in the first round, you can't keep him. Unless you somehow managed to convince the league that you deserve a -1 round pick. For example, I got Brandon Marshall in the 3rd round, if I were to keep him, I've have to expend a 1st round pick to keep him. That's probably not worth it. Any players in the first 4 or so rounds has already had their breakout, so spending a pick 2 round earlier on them is unlikely to be a worthwhile gamble.

That's why the later round picks represent the best keeper potential. My example of picking up Miles Austin in the 15th round means that I'd use a 13th round pick to keep him. That's pretty much a no brainer, as I was happy spending a 3rd round pick on Marshall this year for similar numbers.
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From:dwchang
Date:December 16th, 2009 11:43 pm (UTC)
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OK I understand now. It's not a saturating subtract where once you hit 1 or negative numbers, you can keep them at the cost of a first rounder. I figured you could keep a first or second rounder since it'd be -1 or 0 and saturate back to the first round.
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From:bogosort
Date:December 17th, 2009 12:03 am (UTC)
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That would defeat the whole point of requiring an earlier draft pick. It also ensures that there's more of a circulation of the top players, thus ensuring that the league plays like a keeper league, as opposed to a dynasty league(where almost all the players are retained).
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From:kusoyaro
Date:December 16th, 2009 11:50 pm (UTC)
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I am hearing nothing about Lee Sheng Power Indexes. DISINTEREST.
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From:bogosort
Date:December 17th, 2009 12:04 am (UTC)
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Studliness = Lee Sheng Power Index
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From:drfell
Date:December 17th, 2009 12:37 am (UTC)
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You have forgotten LJ, but LJ has not forgotten you.
From:murdercitydevil
Date:December 17th, 2009 01:55 am (UTC)
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I was talking to Lee how you have by far the best/most interesting keeper scenario the other night. Its either going to be the #1 TE in the game getting put on the board as likely the last TE drafted, vs. a guy who is a solid WR2 in a very, very late round. Nice position to be in.

We all have to wonder--after trading Boldin to me for Davis and Hightower--why in God's name did Charles flat out drop him. Worst drop of the year?

I love that last stat--its a good one. I can't believe Jason got ~35% of his points from the waiver wire and still managed to make the playoffs. How did the other 3 playoff teams do in terms of that stat vs. the bottom 3rd of the league?
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From:bogosort
Date:December 17th, 2009 05:34 am (UTC)
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Having 3 potential keepers brings up an intriguing question to me - what would be the comparative value of trading a draft pick of mine for someone else to retain a keeper for me with one of their slots. For example if I were to give someone now Steve Smith(11th round pick and thus a 9th round keeper), and then I would pick who they would want during an agreed upon round, and we trade as soon as the season starts. It's against the spirit of the keeper system, but it's kind of interesting to think about what round(s) would make such an arrangement mutually beneficial. Too late and it's not advantageous for the one that I'm trading with as it improves my team for nothing. Too early and it's not worthwhile for me to keep said player.

Whoops, I apparently misread the line on my spreadsheet, it was Brett with the super 98% points from draft. The rest are pretty much all over the place regardless of if I sort by rankings or by points.

L33TKREW 88.30%
Elbows Deep 76.67%
Chipmunk Sith Lords 85.47%
Falcon Punchers 75.62%
Funbo 86.59%
Dick Courage! 80.03%
Sugoi SuckNuggets 80.20%
PDE 83.95%
Touchdown JESUS! 65.28%
Spoink 75.37%
SansPants 98.43%
Don't Date N00bs 77.10%
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From:kusoyaro
Date:December 17th, 2009 03:58 pm (UTC)
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Since it's a shady deal to begin with, what's to prevent your partner in crime from just keeping Steve Smith for himself? In that case, all you've done is hand him a bunch of freebies. I don't know what would be better grounds for dismissal from PFF; making the shady deal to begin with, or fucking someone over in a shady deal.
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From:_way_
Date:December 29th, 2009 04:39 pm (UTC)
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I need to get into this league next year just so that I, too, can benefit from the Lee Sheng Power Index.